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Deportivo Binacional vs Comerciantes Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 17:30

Deportivo Binacional

PPG 0.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Comerciantes

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDLW

// Model verdict

Away 68% chance

xG gap -1.27 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-110.5%0-211.2%0-38.0%0-4+7.1%1 1-04.3%1-19.2%1-29.8%1-37.0%1-4+6.2%2 2-01.9%2-14.0%2-24.3%2-33.1%2-4+2.7%3 3-00.5%3-11.2%3-21.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.8% — — —

Draw 19.2% — — —

Away win 68.0% — — —

Over 2.5 62.3% — — —

Over 3.5 39.3% — — —

BTTS 54.9% — — —

Home O1.5 30.9% — — —

Away O1.5 59.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -28.2%

Bet Hit 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.2%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–1 10.5%

#4 1–1 9.2%

#5 0–3 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Binacional0.9

Comerciantes2.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.3% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO BINACIONAL · PPG 0.33

COMERCIANTES · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

68%

DANGER

xG gap -1.27 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Binacional (H) 12.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Comerciantes (A) 68.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Binacional face Comerciantes in Peru - Segunda División on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Binacional a 13% chance, the draw 19% and Comerciantes 68%, so Comerciantes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Deportivo Binacional and 2.1 for Comerciantes (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Binacional are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.14 for Comerciantes. This match finished 1-0.

Deportivo Binacional vs Comerciantes Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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