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Bregenz vs WSPG Wels Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Matchday 27 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 16:00

Bregenz

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

WSPG Wels

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 65% chance

Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-15.8%0-25.1%0-33.1%0-4+2.0%1 1-05.3%1-19.5%1-28.5%1-35.0%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.4%2-17.8%2-27.0%2-34.2%2-4+2.8%3 3-02.4%3-14.3%3-23.8%3-32.3%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.6%4+-22.3%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.9% 32.3% 3.10 +11.3%

Draw 22.5% 28.6% 3.50 -21.3%

Away win 41.6% 47.6% 2.10 -12.6%

Over 2.5 66.6% 58.8% 1.70 +13.2%

Over 3.5 44.9% 36.4% 2.75 +23.5%

BTTS 67.2% 63.7% 1.57 +5.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -68.6%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob67.2%

A 42% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 0–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bregenz1.6

WSPG Wels1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.6% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

BREGENZ · PPG 1.00

WSPG WELS · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

65%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.83)

Win probability 1X2

Bregenz (H) 35.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +11.3%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -21.3%

WSPG Wels (A) 41.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bregenz face WSPG Wels in Austria - 2. Liga on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bregenz a 36% chance, the draw 23% and WSPG Wels 42%, so WSPG Wels are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Bregenz and 1.8 for WSPG Wels (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bregenz are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.83 for WSPG Wels. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.5%. This match finished 2-3.

Bregenz vs WSPG Wels Prediction— Austria - 2. Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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