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Estudiantil CNI vs Alianza Universidad Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 20:15

Estudiantil CNI

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Alianza Universidad

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-110.8%0-25.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.4%1-113.2%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.2%2-18.1%2-24.0%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.4%3-13.3%3-21.6%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.9% — — —

Draw 28.5% — — —

Away win 30.6% — — —

Over 2.5 46.6% — — —

Over 3.5 27.5% — — —

BTTS 51.8% — — —

Home O1.5 33.6% — — —

Away O1.5 29.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -28.2%

Bet Hit 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 1–0 13.4%

#3 0–0 10.9%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Estudiantil CNI1.2

Alianza Universidad1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.6% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ESTUDIANTIL CNI · PPG 1.60

ALIANZA UNIVERSIDAD · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

Chance this pick lands

52%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.24, combined xG 2.22 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Estudiantil CNI (H) 40.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Alianza Universidad (A) 30.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Estudiantil CNI face Alianza Universidad in Peru - Segunda División on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Estudiantil CNI a 41% chance, the draw 28% and Alianza Universidad 31%, so Estudiantil CNI are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Estudiantil CNI and 1.0 for Alianza Universidad (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Estudiantil CNI are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.50 for Alianza Universidad. This match finished 3-0.

Estudiantil CNI vs Alianza Universidad Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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