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Galatasaray vs Göztepe Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:30

Galatasaray

PPG 1.97 · HOME

LAST 5

DWW ··

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Göztepe

PPG 1.37 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLL ··

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-15.3%0-22.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.7%1-110.3%1-25.5%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.0%3-16.4%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-14.8%4+-22.6%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 69.4% 1.44 -23.3%

Draw 23.4% 21.5% 4.65 +5.3%

Away win 23.3% 16.0% 6.25 +27.4%

Over 2.5 59.7% 61.7% 1.62 -3.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 38.5% 2.60 -4.6%

BTTS 55.0% 56.5% 1.77 -2.6%

Home O1.5 56.3% 67.6% 1.48 -16.7%

Away O1.5 32.6% 26.0% 3.85 +25.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.0%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 1–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Galatasaray1.9

Göztepe1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GALATASARAY · PPG 1.97

GÖZTEPE · PPG 1.37

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Galatasaray (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -23.3%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +5.3%

Göztepe (A) 23.3%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +27.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Galatasaray face Göztepe in Turkey - Süper Lig on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Galatasaray a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Göztepe 23%, so Galatasaray are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Galatasaray and 1.1 for Göztepe (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Galatasaray are averaging 1.97 points per game versus 1.37 for Göztepe. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +25.5%. This match finished 3-2.

Galatasaray vs Göztepe Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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