Today / Turkey - Süper Lig / Rizespor vs Samsunspor

Rizespor vs Samsunspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:00

Rizespor

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WLW ··

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Samsunspor

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-16.5%0-24.0%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.8%1-111.1%1-26.9%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.6%2-19.5%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.3%3-15.4%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.4%4+-22.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.3% 43.9% 2.28 +5.6%

Draw 25.8% 29.9% 3.35 -8.1%

Away win 27.9% 33.6% 2.98 -10.1%

Over 2.5 53.9% 54.6% 1.83 -1.4%

Over 3.5 31.6% 32.3% 3.10 -2.0%

BTTS 54.7% 61.7% 1.62 -11.4%

Home O1.5 48.8% 47.6% 2.10 +2.5%

Away O1.5 37.3% 40.0% 2.50 -6.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.7%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.6%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 1–0 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rizespor1.7

Samsunspor1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

RIZESPOR · PPG 1.56

SAMSUNSPOR · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Rizespor (H) 46.3%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +5.6%

Draw 25.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -8.1%

Samsunspor (A) 27.9%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rizespor face Samsunspor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rizespor a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Samsunspor 28%, so Rizespor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Rizespor and 1.3 for Samsunspor (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rizespor are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.40 for Samsunspor. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Rizespor vs Samsunspor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

More Turkey - Süper Lig Predictions