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Göztepe vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 18:30

Göztepe

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

DLL ··

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWD ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-16.7%0-23.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.9%1-111.4%1-26.0%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.7%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.3%3-15.5%3-22.9%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 60.6% 1.65 -20.8%

Draw 25.6% 27.8% 3.60 -4.7%

Away win 26.4% 20.0% 5.00 +19.2%

Over 2.5 51.3% 52.6% 1.90 -2.5%

Over 3.5 30.9% 30.8% 3.25 +0.4%

BTTS 53.0% 54.6% 1.83 -3.0%

Home O1.5 48.8% 57.8% 1.73 -15.6%

Away O1.5 32.9% 25.0% 4.00 +31.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.0%

H 48% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Göztepe1.7

Gençlerbirliği S.K.1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GÖZTEPE · PPG 1.71

GENÇLERBIRLIĞI S.K. · PPG 0.87

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Göztepe (H) 48.0%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -20.8%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -4.7%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. (A) 26.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +19.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Göztepe face Gençlerbirliği S.K. in Turkey - Süper Lig on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Göztepe a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 26%, so Göztepe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Göztepe and 1.0 for Gençlerbirliği S.K. (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Göztepe are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.87 for Gençlerbirliği S.K.. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +31.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Göztepe vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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