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Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 16:00

Trabzonspor

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

DWL ··

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Başakşehir

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLD ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-19.0%0-25.5%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.2%1-112.5%1-27.6%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.1%2-18.7%2-25.3%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.3%3-14.0%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 47.6% 2.10 -20.6%

Draw 28.9% 30.3% 3.30 -2.8%

Away win 33.3% 32.3% 3.10 +3.2%

Over 2.5 50.1% 57.8% 1.73 -13.3%

Over 3.5 28.4% 36.4% 2.75 -13.1%

BTTS 52.4% 63.7% 1.57 -17.7%

Home O1.5 38.8% 52.4% 1.91 -25.9%

Away O1.5 37.3% 40.0% 2.50 -6.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.4%

D 29% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.3%

#3 2–1✓ 8.7%

#4 1–2 7.6%

#5 1–0 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trabzonspor1.4

Başakşehir1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TRABZONSPOR · PPG 1.79

BAŞAKŞEHIR · PPG 1.56

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Trabzonspor (H) 37.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -20.6%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.8%

Başakşehir (A) 33.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trabzonspor face Başakşehir in Turkey - Süper Lig on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trabzonspor a 38% chance, the draw 29% and Başakşehir 33%, so Trabzonspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Trabzonspor and 1.2 for Başakşehir (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trabzonspor are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.56 for Başakşehir. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Trabzonspor vs Başakşehir Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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