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Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:30

Başakşehir

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

WLD ··

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Kasımpaşa

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWD ··

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 47.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-17.7%0-23.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.2%1-112.0%1-25.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.4%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.0%3-14.9%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 59.9% 1.67 -21.0%

Draw 27.4% 25.3% 3.95 +4.9%

Away win 25.3% 21.7% 4.60 +9.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 58.8% 1.70 -14.1%

Over 3.5 28.7% 35.7% 2.80 -11.8%

BTTS 52.2% 58.8% 1.70 -11.3%

Home O1.5 46.4% 59.9% 1.67 -22.5%

Away O1.5 29.1% 31.3% 3.20 -4.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.2%

H 47% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.0%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 0–0 7.8%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Başakşehir1.6

Kasımpaşa1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BAŞAKŞEHIR · PPG 1.89

KASIMPAŞA · PPG 1.38

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Başakşehir (H) 47.3%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -21.0%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +4.9%

Kasımpaşa (A) 25.3%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +9.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Başakşehir face Kasımpaşa in Turkey - Süper Lig on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Başakşehir a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Kasımpaşa 25%, so Başakşehir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Başakşehir and 1.0 for Kasımpaşa (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Başakşehir are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.38 for Kasımpaşa. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +0.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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