Today / Turkey - Süper Lig / Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe

Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:30

Samsunspor

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DWL ··

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Fenerbahçe

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWW ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-16.7%0-24.7%0-32.2%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.7%1-111.0%1-27.8%1-33.7%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.3%2-18.9%2-26.3%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-03.4%3-14.9%3-23.5%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.9%4+-22.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 19.0% 5.25 +128.4%

Draw 23.7% 24.4% 4.10 -1.7%

Away win 32.8% 63.3% 1.58 -48.2%

Over 2.5 59.7% 61.7% 1.62 -3.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 39.2% 2.55 -6.4%

BTTS 60.8% 60.6% 1.65 +0.3%

Home O1.5 48.9% 31.3% 3.20 +56.5%

Away O1.5 40.9% 64.5% 1.55 -36.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.8%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 2–0 6.3%

#5 1–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Samsunspor1.6

Fenerbahçe1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMSUNSPOR · PPG 1.50

FENERBAHÇE · PPG 1.55

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Samsunspor (H) 43.5%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +128.4%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -1.7%

Fenerbahçe (A) 32.8%

ODDS 1.58 · IMPLIED 63.3% EV -48.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Samsunspor face Fenerbahçe in Turkey - Süper Lig on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Samsunspor a 44% chance, the draw 24% and Fenerbahçe 33%, so Samsunspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Samsunspor and 1.4 for Fenerbahçe (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Samsunspor are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.55 for Fenerbahçe. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +110.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Samsunspor vs Fenerbahçe Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

More Turkey - Süper Lig Predictions