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Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 18:30

Alanyaspor

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

DWL ··

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Beşiktaş

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLW ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-110.6%0-26.3%0-32.5%0-4+1.0%1 1-010.9%1-113.0%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.7%2-18.0%2-24.8%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.7%3-13.3%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.2% 27.0% 3.70 +26.5%

Draw 32.0% 29.4% 3.40 +8.8%

Away win 33.8% 54.1% 1.85 -37.5%

Over 2.5 44.8% 55.6% 1.80 -19.4%

Over 3.5 27.5% 36.4% 2.75 -14.6%

BTTS 49.1% 60.6% 1.65 -19.0%

Home O1.5 33.2% 33.3% 3.00 -0.4%

Away O1.5 36.4% 54.6% 1.83 -33.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.1%

D 32% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 8.9%

#3 0–1 10.6%

#4 1–0✓ 10.9%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alanyaspor1.2

Beşiktaş1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ALANYASPOR · PPG 1.40

BEŞIKTAŞ · PPG 1.64

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.03, combined xG 2.42 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Alanyaspor (H) 34.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +26.5%

Draw 32.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +8.8%

Beşiktaş (A) 33.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -37.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alanyaspor face Beşiktaş in Turkey - Süper Lig on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alanyaspor a 34% chance, the draw 32% and Beşiktaş 34%, so Alanyaspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Alanyaspor and 1.2 for Beşiktaş (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alanyaspor are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.64 for Beşiktaş. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +27.8%. This match finished 1-0.

Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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