Today / Turkey - Süper Lig / Konyaspor vs Kocaelispor

Konyaspor vs Kocaelispor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 16:00

Konyaspor

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

LLL ··

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Kocaelispor

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWW ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-19.1%0-25.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.6%1-112.7%1-26.9%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-18.8%2-24.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.7%3-14.1%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.5% 50.0% 2.00 -15.0%

Draw 27.6% 29.4% 3.40 -3.7%

Away win 29.9% 27.8% 3.60 +4.6%

Over 2.5 50.5% 47.6% 2.10 +6.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.0% 3.85 +6.3%

BTTS 52.7% 54.1% 1.85 -2.5%

Home O1.5 38.8% 46.5% 2.15 -16.6%

Away O1.5 33.0% 30.3% 3.30 +8.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 20.3%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.7%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 0–0 8.4%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Konyaspor1.4

Kocaelispor1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KONYASPOR · PPG 1.20

KOCAELISPOR · PPG 0.88

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.29, combined xG 2.48 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Konyaspor (H) 42.5%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -15.0%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.7%

Kocaelispor (A) 29.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Konyaspor face Kocaelispor in Turkey - Süper Lig on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Konyaspor a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Kocaelispor 30%, so Konyaspor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Konyaspor and 1.1 for Kocaelispor (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Konyaspor are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.88 for Kocaelispor. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Konyaspor vs Kocaelispor Prediction— Turkey - Süper Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

More Turkey - Süper Lig Predictions