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Ituzaingó vs Dock Sud Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:00

Ituzaingó

PPG 0.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Dock Sud

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-116.1%0-210.4%0-34.5%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.9%1-112.7%1-28.2%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-03.9%2-15.0%2-23.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.0%3-11.3%3-20.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.1% 27.8% 3.60 +0.7%

Draw 27.4% 34.7% 2.88 -12.7%

Away win 44.5% 48.8% 2.05 -8.8%

Over 2.5 44.8% 45.5% 2.20 -1.4%

Over 3.5 25.6% 25.0% 4.00 +1.4%

BTTS 47.4% 48.8% 2.05 -2.8%

Home O1.5 30.9% 26.7% 3.75 +15.9%

Away O1.5 36.6% 45.5% 2.20 -19.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob47.4%

A 44% / xG 0.8-1.3 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 16.1%

#2 1–1 12.7%

#3 0–0 12.5%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 0–2✓ 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ituzaingó0.8

Dock Sud1.3

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ITUZAINGÓ · PPG 0.62

DOCK SUD · PPG 0.94

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.50 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Ituzaingó (H) 28.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +0.7%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -12.7%

Dock Sud (A) 44.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ituzaingó face Dock Sud in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ituzaingó a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Dock Sud 45%, so Dock Sud are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Ituzaingó and 1.3 for Dock Sud (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ituzaingó are averaging 0.62 points per game versus 0.94 for Dock Sud. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 0-2.

Ituzaingó vs Dock Sud Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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