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U. San Martin vs Cesar Vallejo Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 15:45

U. San Martin

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Cesar Vallejo

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-18.4%0-23.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.6%1-112.0%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.8%2-18.6%2-23.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.6%3-14.1%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% — — —

Draw 26.9% — — —

Away win 23.9% — — —

Over 2.5 44.8% — — —

Over 3.5 25.6% — — —

BTTS 47.2% — — —

Home O1.5 40.1% — — —

Away O1.5 18.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -28.2%

Bet Hit 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.6%

#2 1–1 12.0%

#3 0–0 11.6%

#4 2–0✓ 11.8%

#5 0–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

U. San Martin1.4

Cesar Vallejo0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

U. SAN MARTIN · PPG 1.40

CESAR VALLEJO · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

49%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

U. San Martin (H) 49.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Cesar Vallejo (A) 23.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

U. San Martin face Cesar Vallejo in Peru - Segunda División on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives U. San Martin a 49% chance, the draw 27% and Cesar Vallejo 24%, so U. San Martin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for U. San Martin and 0.7 for Cesar Vallejo (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, U. San Martin are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.83 for Cesar Vallejo. This match finished 2-0.

U. San Martin vs Cesar Vallejo Prediction— Peru - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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