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Eltham Redbacks vs Northcote City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 10 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 10:30

Eltham Redbacks

PPG 2.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Northcote City

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-16.0%0-25.9%0-33.8%0-4+2.9%1 1-04.7%1-19.2%1-29.0%1-35.8%1-4+4.4%2 2-03.6%2-17.0%2-26.8%2-34.5%2-4+3.4%3 3-01.8%3-13.6%3-23.5%3-32.3%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.9%4+-21.9%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.4% 35.7% 2.80 -14.9%

Draw 21.9% 30.3% 3.30 -27.7%

Away win 47.7% 47.6% 2.10 +0.2%

Over 2.5 67.5% — — —

Over 3.5 45.8% — — —

BTTS 67.1% 71.4% 1.40 -6.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob67.1%

A 48% / xG 1.5-1.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.2%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eltham Redbacks1.5

Northcote City1.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.5% · O3.5 PROB 45.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ELTHAM REDBACKS · PPG 2.50

NORTHCOTE CITY · PPG 2.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.50), Away EXCELLENT (2.40)

Win probability 1X2

Eltham Redbacks (H) 30.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -14.9%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -27.7%

Northcote City (A) 47.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eltham Redbacks face Northcote City in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eltham Redbacks a 30% chance, the draw 22% and Northcote City 48%, so Northcote City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Eltham Redbacks and 1.9 for Northcote City (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eltham Redbacks are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 2.40 for Northcote City. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Eltham Redbacks vs Northcote City Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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