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Brunswick Juven vs North Sunshine Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Regular Season - 10 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 10:30

Brunswick Juven

PPG 2.25 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

North Sunshine

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 82.2% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a clear edge.

+15.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-11.4%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.8%1-14.5%1-22.1%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.9%2-17.4%2-23.5%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.7%3-18.1%3-23.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-016.4%4+-115.3%4+-27.2%4+-32.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 82.2% 71.4% 1.40 +15.1%

Draw 10.8% 22.2% 4.50 -51.4%

Away win 7.0% 18.2% 5.50 -61.5%

Over 2.5 79.3% — — —

Over 3.5 61.0% — — —

BTTS 58.5% 71.4% 1.40 -18.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -15.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob58.5%

H 82% / xG 3.3-0.9 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.7%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 2–1 7.4%

#5 4–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brunswick Juven3.3

North Sunshine0.9

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.3% · O3.5 PROB 61.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BRUNSWICK JUVEN · PPG 2.25

NORTH SUNSHINE · PPG 0.50

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.25), Away POOR (0.50) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Brunswick Juven (H) 82.2%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV +15.1%

Draw 10.8%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -51.4%

North Sunshine (A) 7.0%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV -61.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brunswick Juven face North Sunshine in Australia - Victoria NPL 2 on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brunswick Juven a 82% chance, the draw 11% and North Sunshine 7%, so Brunswick Juven are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Brunswick Juven and 0.9 for North Sunshine (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brunswick Juven are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.50 for North Sunshine. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +15.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Brunswick Juven vs North Sunshine Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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