Today / Australia - Victoria NPL / Oakleigh C. vs Bentleigh G.

Oakleigh C. vs Bentleigh G. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 10 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 10:15

Oakleigh C.

PPG 1.80 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

Bentleigh G.

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-19.1%0-24.8%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.0%1-112.7%1-26.7%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.4%2-18.9%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.9%3-14.1%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 67.6% 1.48 -33.8%

Draw 26.8% 24.4% 4.10 +9.9%

Away win 28.5% 17.9% 5.60 +59.6%

Over 2.5 44.5% 64.5% 1.55 -31.0%

Over 3.5 23.3% 42.0% 2.38 -44.5%

BTTS 49.2% 61.7% 1.62 -20.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 19%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob49.2%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 44% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 0–1 9.1%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 0–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oakleigh C.1.4

Bentleigh G.1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 23.3%

Form & verdict PPG

OAKLEIGH C. · PPG 1.80

BENTLEIGH G. · PPG 0.80

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.80) vs P(Home)=44.7%

Win probability 1X2

Oakleigh C. (H) 44.7%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -33.8%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +9.9%

Bentleigh G. (A) 28.5%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV +59.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oakleigh C. face Bentleigh G. in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oakleigh C. a 45% chance, the draw 27% and Bentleigh G. 28%, so Oakleigh C. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Oakleigh C. and 1.1 for Bentleigh G. (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oakleigh C. are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.80 for Bentleigh G.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +59.6%. This match finished 4-0.

Oakleigh C. vs Bentleigh G. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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