← Back to picks

St. Albans vs South Melbourne Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Australia - Victoria NPL logo Australia flag Australia - Victoria NPL Regular Season - 10 Churchill Reserve Friday, April 24, 2026 10:00
St. Albans logo St. Albans PPG 1.00
0-4 MISS
South Melbourne logo South Melbourne PPG 2.40
Away· +3.8% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value
63% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Albans face South Melbourne in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Albans a 16% chance, the draw 21% and South Melbourne 63%, so South Melbourne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for St. Albans and 1.9 for South Melbourne (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Albans are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.40 for South Melbourne. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.8%. This match finished 0-4.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 15.5%
Odds: 4.50 EV: -30.3%
Draw 21.2%
Odds: 3.80 EV: -19.4%
Away 63.3%
Odds: 1.64 EV: +3.8%
Model lean: Away
Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 52.8% Odds: 1.62 -14.5%
Over 3.5 30.6% Odds: 2.50 -23.5%
BTTS 48.8% Odds: 1.57 -23.4%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS NO → NO ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-1
2nd 0-2
3rd 1-1
4th 1-2
5th 0-3

Expected Goals (xG)

St. Albans
0.84
South Melbourne
1.95

Model Suggestion

Away +3.8% ROI TRACKS: Away
Tracked ROI market: Away.

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value
63%
UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

PredictVantage is for entertainment and informational purposes only. We do not provide financial or betting advice. All predictions are model-generated and do not guarantee any outcome. Gambling involves risk — never bet more than you can afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly. 18+ only. BeGambleAware.org