Today / Australia - Victoria NPL / St. Albans vs South Melbourne

St. Albans vs South Melbourne Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 10 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 10:00

St. Albans

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

South Melbourne

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 63.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-112.0%0-211.6%0-37.6%0-4+5.8%1 1-05.2%1-110.1%1-29.8%1-36.4%1-4+4.8%2 2-02.2%2-14.2%2-24.1%2-32.7%2-4+2.0%3 3-00.6%3-11.2%3-21.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 15.5% 22.2% 4.50 -30.3%

Draw 21.2% 26.3% 3.80 -19.4%

Away win 63.3% 61.0% 1.64 +3.8%

Over 2.5 52.8% 61.7% 1.62 -14.5%

Over 3.5 30.6% 40.0% 2.50 -23.5%

BTTS 48.8% 63.7% 1.57 -23.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob48.8%

A 63% / xG 0.8-1.9 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 12.0%

#2 0–2 11.6%

#3 1–1 10.1%

#4 1–2 9.8%

#5 0–3 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Albans0.8

South Melbourne1.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 30.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. ALBANS · PPG 1.00

SOUTH MELBOURNE · PPG 2.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

St. Albans (H) 15.5%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -30.3%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -19.4%

South Melbourne (A) 63.3%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV +3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Albans face South Melbourne in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Albans a 16% chance, the draw 21% and South Melbourne 63%, so South Melbourne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for St. Albans and 1.9 for South Melbourne (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Albans are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.40 for South Melbourne. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.8%. This match finished 0-4.

St. Albans vs South Melbourne Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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