Today / Australia - Victoria NPL / Dandenong City vs Dandenong T.

Dandenong City vs Dandenong T. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Regular Season - 10 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 09:45

Dandenong City

PPG 1.60 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Dandenong T.

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.4%0-23.8%0-31.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.0%1-110.0%1-27.1%1-33.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-19.2%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.0%3-15.7%3-24.1%3-31.9%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-14.0%4+-22.9%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% 40.0% 2.50 +19.3%

Draw 22.6% 29.4% 3.40 -23.2%

Away win 29.8% 40.0% 2.50 -25.5%

Over 2.5 63.6% 56.5% 1.77 +12.6%

Over 3.5 41.5% 33.9% 2.95 +22.4%

BTTS 64.1% 62.5% 1.60 +2.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 39%

ROI -12.0%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob64.1%

H 48% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 1–0 7.0%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dandenong City1.9

Dandenong T.1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 41.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DANDENONG CITY · PPG 1.60

DANDENONG T. · PPG 0.75

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.60) vs P(Home)=47.7%

Win probability 1X2

Dandenong City (H) 47.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +19.3%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -23.2%

Dandenong T. (A) 29.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -25.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dandenong City face Dandenong T. in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dandenong City a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Dandenong T. 30%, so Dandenong City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Dandenong City and 1.4 for Dandenong T. (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dandenong City are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.75 for Dandenong T.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Dandenong City vs Dandenong T. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Victoria NPL Predictions