Dandenong City vs Dandenong T. Prediction— Australia - Victoria NPL

Australia - Victoria NPL Regular Season - 10 Friday, April 24, 2026 09:45

Dandenong City PPG 1.60

0-1 MISS

Dandenong T. PPG 0.75

Over3.5· +22.4% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Dandenong City face Dandenong T. in Australia - Victoria NPL on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dandenong City a 48% chance, the draw 23% and Dandenong T. 30%, so Dandenong City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Dandenong City and 1.4 for Dandenong T. (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dandenong City are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.75 for Dandenong T.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 47.7%

Odds: 2.50 EV: +19.3%

Draw 22.6%

Odds: 3.40 EV: -23.2%

Away 29.8%

Odds: 2.50 EV: -25.5%

Model lean: BTTS

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 63.6% Odds: 1.77 +12.6%

Over 3.5 41.5% Odds: 2.95 +22.4%

BTTS 64.1% Odds: 1.60 +2.6%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 2-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Dandenong City

1.85

Dandenong T.

1.43

Model SuggestionBTTS +2.6% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+22.4%)

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.60) vs P(Home)=47.7%