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Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 16:30

Al-Wasl FC

PPG 2.19 · HOME

LAST 5

WWL ··

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai

PPG 2.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-18.2%0-26.3%0-33.2%0-4+1.7%1 1-07.5%1-111.5%1-28.7%1-34.4%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.3%2-18.0%2-26.1%2-33.1%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.4%3-13.7%3-22.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 33.6% 2.98 +9.4%

Draw 24.9% 27.4% 3.65 -5.5%

Away win 38.4% 48.1% 2.08 -20.1%

Over 2.5 59.7% 65.4% 1.53 -8.7%

Over 3.5 36.7% 42.6% 2.35 -13.8%

BTTS 60.0% 69.0% 1.45 -13.0%

Home O1.5 39.3% 45.5% 2.20 -13.5%

Away O1.5 47.9% 56.5% 1.77 -15.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.0%

A 38% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 8.0%

#3 1–2 8.7%

#4 1–0 7.5%

#5 0–1✓ 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Wasl FC1.4

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-WASL FC · PPG 2.19

SHABAB AL AHLI DUBAI · PPG 2.10

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Al-Wasl FC (H) 36.7%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV +9.4%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -5.5%

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (A) 38.4%

ODDS 2.08 · IMPLIED 48.1% EV -20.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Wasl FC face Shabab Al Ahli Dubai in United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Wasl FC a 37% chance, the draw 25% and Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 38%, so Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Al-Wasl FC and 1.5 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Wasl FC are averaging 2.19 points per game versus 2.10 for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Al-Wasl FC vs Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Prediction— United-Arab-Emirates - Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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