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Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Mielec Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 13:30

Pogoń Siedlce

PPG 1.28 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Stal Mielec

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-16.1%0-24.3%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.6%1-110.6%1-27.4%1-33.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-19.2%2-26.4%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.8%3-15.3%3-23.7%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.4%4+-22.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.2% 35.7% 2.80 +29.4%

Draw 24.1% 32.3% 3.10 -15.2%

Away win 29.7% 44.4% 2.25 -19.9%

Over 2.5 61.2% 57.8% 1.73 +5.9%

Over 3.5 38.1% 36.4% 2.75 +4.8%

BTTS 60.8% 63.7% 1.57 -4.5%

Home O1.5 48.9% 42.0% 2.38 +16.4%

Away O1.5 40.9% 50.0% 2.00 -18.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -10.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.8%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–0✓ 6.6%

#5 1–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pogoń Siedlce1.7

Stal Mielec1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.1%

Form & verdict PPG

POGOŃ SIEDLCE · PPG 1.28

STAL MIELEC · PPG 1.27

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.34 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Pogoń Siedlce (H) 46.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +29.4%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -15.2%

Stal Mielec (A) 29.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pogoń Siedlce face Stal Mielec in Poland - I Liga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pogoń Siedlce a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Stal Mielec 30%, so Pogoń Siedlce are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Pogoń Siedlce and 1.4 for Stal Mielec (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pogoń Siedlce are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.27 for Stal Mielec. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +45.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Pogoń Siedlce vs Stal Mielec Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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