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Växjö W vs Malmö FF W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Matchday 16 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 13:00

Växjö W

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Malmö FF W

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-110.9%0-28.9%0-34.8%0-4+2.8%1 1-07.2%1-111.7%1-29.5%1-35.2%1-4+3.0%2 2-03.9%2-16.3%2-25.1%2-32.8%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.4%3-12.3%3-21.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.4% 11.8% 8.50 +84.8%

Draw 24.7% 20.8% 4.80 +11.1%

Away win 46.9% 80.0% 1.25 -41.4%

Over 2.5 53.5% 66.7% 1.50 -19.8%

Over 3.5 31.5% 45.5% 2.20 -30.7%

BTTS 54.3% 57.1% 1.75 -5.0%

Home O1.5 30.9% 22.5% 4.45 +37.5%

Away O1.5 47.9% 76.9% 1.30 -37.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -18.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.3%

A 47% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–1 10.9%

#4 0–2 8.9%

#5 2–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Växjö W1.1

Malmö FF W1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VÄXJÖ W · PPG 1.62

MALMÖ FF W · PPG 1.50

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.55 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Växjö W (H) 28.4%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +84.8%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +11.1%

Malmö FF W (A) 46.9%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -41.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Växjö W face Malmö FF W in Sweden - Damallsvenskan on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Växjö W a 28% chance, the draw 25% and Malmö FF W 47%, so Malmö FF W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Växjö W and 1.6 for Malmö FF W (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Växjö W are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.50 for Malmö FF W. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +81.3%. This match finished 0-4.

Växjö W vs Malmö FF W Prediction— Sweden - Damallsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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