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FC Tallinn vs Nõmme Kalju II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 26 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 09:30

FC Tallinn

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Nõmme Kalju II

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-13.9%0-22.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.6%1-18.4%1-26.2%1-33.1%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.1%2-19.0%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.4%3-16.5%3-24.8%3-32.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-15.8%4+-24.3%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 52.4% 1.91 -0.9%

Draw 21.8% 23.8% 4.20 -5.1%

Away win 26.4% 35.7% 2.80 -15.7%

Over 2.5 65.1% 78.1% 1.28 -16.7%

Over 3.5 43.2% 62.1% 1.61 -30.4%

BTTS 63.1% 80.0% 1.25 -21.1%

Home O1.5 62.1% 69.0% 1.45 -10.0%

Away O1.5 40.9% 59.5% 1.68 -31.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.1%

H 52% / xG 2.2-1.5 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 1–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 6.2%

#4 3–1 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Tallinn2.2

Nõmme Kalju II1.5

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.1% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FC TALLINN · PPG 1.33

NÕMME KALJU II · PPG 0.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.66 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Tallinn (H) 51.9%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -0.9%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.1%

Nõmme Kalju II (A) 26.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -15.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Tallinn face Nõmme Kalju II in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Tallinn a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Nõmme Kalju II 26%, so FC Tallinn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for FC Tallinn and 1.5 for Nõmme Kalju II (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Tallinn are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.64 for Nõmme Kalju II. This match finished 0-2.

FC Tallinn vs Nõmme Kalju II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

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