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Northern Tigers vs Macarthur Rams Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Matchday 29 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 06:30

Northern Tigers

PPG 2.14 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

Macarthur Rams

PPG 2.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-111.3%0-24.9%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.2%1-113.2%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.9%2-17.7%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.5%3-13.0%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.1% 57.1% 1.75 -21.1%

Draw 27.8% 30.3% 3.30 -5.0%

Away win 27.0% 25.6% 3.90 +3.2%

Over 2.5 43.3% 58.8% 1.70 -26.4%

Over 3.5 22.8% 32.5% 3.08 -17.9%

BTTS 48.3% 58.8% 1.70 -17.9%

Home O1.5 31.8% 54.6% 1.83 -41.8%

Away O1.5 22.8% 29.9% 3.34 -14.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 55.2%

Bet Hit 100%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.3%

H 45% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.2%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–0 13.0%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 2–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Northern Tigers1.2

Macarthur Rams0.9

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.3% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTHERN TIGERS · PPG 2.14

MACARTHUR RAMS · PPG 2.15

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.30, combined xG 2.04 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Northern Tigers (H) 45.1%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -21.1%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -5.0%

Macarthur Rams (A) 27.0%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Northern Tigers face Macarthur Rams in Australia - New South Wales NPL 2 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Northern Tigers a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Macarthur Rams 27%, so Northern Tigers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Northern Tigers and 0.9 for Macarthur Rams (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Northern Tigers are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 2.15 for Macarthur Rams. This match finished 3-2.

Northern Tigers vs Macarthur Rams Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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