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Wrexham vs Birmingham Prediction— England - Championship

Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 19:00

Wrexham

PPG 1.48 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLW ·

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Birmingham

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWD ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-19.4%0-24.7%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.9%1-112.8%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.8%2-18.8%2-24.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.0%3-14.0%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 40.3% 2.48 +9.9%

Draw 27.0% 30.8% 3.25 -7.3%

Away win 28.7% 36.2% 2.76 -12.5%

Over 2.5 44.8% 51.3% 1.95 -12.6%

Over 3.5 26.7% 29.0% 3.45 -4.7%

BTTS 49.2% 57.8% 1.73 -14.9%

Home O1.5 38.0% 42.0% 2.38 -9.6%

Away O1.5 30.4% 39.2% 2.55 -22.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 75 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.2%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 0–0 9.4%

#4 2–0 8.8%

#5 2–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wrexham1.4

Birmingham1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.7%

Form & verdict PPG

WREXHAM · PPG 1.48

BIRMINGHAM · PPG 1.08

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 2.36 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Wrexham (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.48 · IMPLIED 40.3% EV +9.9%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.3%

Birmingham (A) 28.7%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV -12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wrexham face Birmingham in England - Championship on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wrexham a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Birmingham 29%, so Wrexham are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Wrexham and 1.0 for Birmingham (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wrexham are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.08 for Birmingham. This match finished 1-2.

Wrexham vs Birmingham Prediction— England - Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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