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Elfsborg W vs Häcken II W Prediction— Sweden - Elitettan

Matchday 16 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 16:30

Elfsborg W

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Häcken II W

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 74.3% vs bookmaker-implied 90.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-12.4%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-013.5%1-16.0%1-21.3%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.5%2-17.4%2-21.7%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.5%3-16.1%3-21.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-014.9%4+-16.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.3% 90.9% 1.10 -18.3%

Draw 17.0% 11.1% 9.00 +31.8%

Away win 8.7% 7.7% 13.00 +7.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 73.5% 1.36 -18.8%

Over 3.5 36.7% 50.5% 1.98 -27.3%

BTTS 47.2% 36.4% 2.75 +29.8%

Home O1.5 65.8% 77.5% 1.29 -15.1%

Away O1.5 13.0% 9.5% 10.50 +21.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob47.2%

H 74% / xG 2.5-0.4 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 16.5%

#2 3–0 13.5%

#3 1–0 13.5%

#4 1–1 6.0%

#5 4–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Elfsborg W2.5

Häcken II W0.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ELFSBORG W · PPG 1.88

HÄCKEN II W · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.01 for Home, form 1.88 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Elfsborg W (H) 74.3%

ODDS 1.10 · IMPLIED 90.9% EV -18.3%

Draw 17.0%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +31.8%

Häcken II W (A) 8.7%

ODDS 13.00 · IMPLIED 7.7% EV +7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Elfsborg W face Häcken II W in Sweden - Elitettan on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Elfsborg W a 74% chance, the draw 17% and Häcken II W 9%, so Elfsborg W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Elfsborg W and 0.4 for Häcken II W (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Elfsborg W are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.50 for Häcken II W. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +29.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Elfsborg W vs Häcken II W Prediction— Sweden - Elitettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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