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Jitex W vs Alingsås W Prediction— Sweden - Elitettan

Matchday 15 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 11:00

Jitex W

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Alingsås W

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-19.9%0-24.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.6%1-113.0%1-26.2%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.9%2-18.5%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.9%3-13.7%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 54.1% 1.85 -16.9%

Draw 26.4% 29.4% 3.40 -6.1%

Away win 28.7% 30.3% 3.30 -3.2%

Over 2.5 50.1% 60.6% 1.65 -17.3%

Over 3.5 28.1% 40.2% 2.49 -18.0%

BTTS 52.7% 64.5% 1.55 -18.3%

Home O1.5 37.8% 56.8% 1.76 -33.5%

Away O1.5 25.7% 39.4% 2.54 -20.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 1–0 13.6%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 8.9%

#5 0–1 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jitex W1.3

Alingsås W1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

JITEX W · PPG 1.25

ALINGSÅS W · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.35, combined xG 2.27 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jitex W (H) 44.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -16.9%

Draw 26.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -6.1%

Alingsås W (A) 28.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jitex W face Alingsås W in Sweden - Elitettan on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jitex W a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Alingsås W 29%, so Jitex W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Jitex W and 1.0 for Alingsås W (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jitex W are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.71 for Alingsås W. This match finished 1-2.

Jitex W vs Alingsås W Prediction— Sweden - Elitettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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