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Gamla Upsala W vs Trelleborg W Prediction— Sweden - Elitettan

Matchday 14 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 12:00

Gamla Upsala W

PPG 0.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Trelleborg W

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 67.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-17.7%0-27.4%0-34.7%0-4+3.5%1 1-05.2%1-110.0%1-29.6%1-36.1%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.4%2-16.5%2-26.2%2-34.0%2-4+2.9%3 3-01.5%3-12.8%3-22.7%3-31.7%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.2%4+-21.2%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.9% 29.9% 3.35 +0.1%

Draw 24.4% 30.3% 3.30 -11.7%

Away win 45.7% 51.5% 1.94 -11.3%

Over 2.5 59.5% 64.5% 1.55 -7.8%

Over 3.5 36.5% 42.9% 2.33 -14.9%

BTTS 60.4% 67.1% 1.49 -10.0%

Home O1.5 37.9% 43.1% 2.32 -12.1%

Away O1.5 53.8% 59.5% 1.68 -9.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob60.4%

A 46% / xG 1.3-1.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.4%

#4 2–1 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gamla Upsala W1.3

Trelleborg W1.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GAMLA UPSALA W · PPG 0.29

TRELLEBORG W · PPG 1.17

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.61 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Gamla Upsala W (H) 29.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +0.1%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -11.7%

Trelleborg W (A) 45.7%

ODDS 1.94 · IMPLIED 51.5% EV -11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gamla Upsala W face Trelleborg W in Sweden - Elitettan on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gamla Upsala W a 30% chance, the draw 24% and Trelleborg W 46%, so Trelleborg W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Gamla Upsala W and 1.9 for Trelleborg W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gamla Upsala W are averaging 0.29 points per game versus 1.17 for Trelleborg W.

Gamla Upsala W vs Trelleborg W Prediction— Sweden - Elitettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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