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Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 16:00

Keçiörengücü

PPG 1.91 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDW

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Ümraniyespor

PPG 0.95 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+11.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-13.7%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.9%1-18.5%1-24.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-19.7%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.8%3-17.5%3-23.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.7%4+-17.3%4+-23.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% 64.5% 1.55 -11.7%

Draw 21.4% 27.4% 3.65 -13.1%

Away win 21.6% 18.5% 5.40 +10.0%

Over 2.5 62.2% 51.8% 1.93 +20.1%

Over 3.5 39.3% 30.3% 3.30 +29.7%

BTTS 55.0% 52.4% 1.91 +5.1%

Home O1.5 65.8% 58.8% 1.70 +11.9%

Away O1.5 25.7% 23.8% 4.20 +4.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -50.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.0%

H 57% / xG 2.3-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–0 10.3%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 1–2 4.0%

#5 3–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Keçiörengücü2.3

Ümraniyespor1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KEÇIÖRENGÜCÜ · PPG 1.91

ÜMRANIYESPOR · PPG 0.95

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.34 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Keçiörengücü (H) 57.0%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -11.7%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -13.1%

Ümraniyespor (A) 21.6%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Keçiörengücü face Ümraniyespor in Turkey - 1. Lig on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Keçiörengücü a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Ümraniyespor 22%, so Keçiörengücü are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Keçiörengücü and 1.0 for Ümraniyespor (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Keçiörengücü are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 0.95 for Ümraniyespor. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +29.7%. This match finished 2-2.

Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor Prediction— Turkey - 1. Lig

Match Preview & Prediction

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