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ÅIFK vs Ilves II Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 15:30

ÅIFK

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Ilves II

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.3%0-22.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.0%1-17.7%1-25.9%1-33.0%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.8%2-18.8%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.4%3-16.7%3-25.1%3-32.6%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-16.6%4+-25.1%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.6% — — —

Draw 21.2% — — —

Away win 28.1% — — —

Over 2.5 68.2% — — —

Over 3.5 48.1% — — —

BTTS 63.1% — — —

Home O1.5 65.8% — — —

Away O1.5 47.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.7%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 5.9%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ÅIFK2.3

Ilves II1.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ÅIFK · PPG 1.78

ILVES II · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.77 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

ÅIFK (H) 50.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ilves II (A) 28.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

ÅIFK face Ilves II in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ÅIFK a 51% chance, the draw 21% and Ilves II 28%, so ÅIFK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for ÅIFK and 1.5 for Ilves II (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ÅIFK are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.11 for Ilves II. This match finished 1-0.

ÅIFK vs Ilves II Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Kakkonen Group B Predictions