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Deportivo Merlo vs Dock Sud Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 32 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 22:00

Deportivo Merlo

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Dock Sud

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-19.1%0-26.0%0-32.6%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.4%1-112.3%1-28.1%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.4%2-18.4%2-25.5%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.9%3-13.8%3-22.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.9% 40.0% 2.50 -5.3%

Draw 25.7% 33.9% 2.95 -14.5%

Away win 36.4% 36.4% 2.75 +0.1%

Over 2.5 53.5% 40.8% 2.45 +31.1%

Over 3.5 31.5% 22.2% 4.50 +41.8%

BTTS 55.0% 51.3% 1.95 +7.2%

Home O1.5 38.0% 36.4% 2.75 +4.5%

Away O1.5 39.9% 33.3% 3.00 +19.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.0%

H 38% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2✓ 8.1%

#4 1–0 9.4%

#5 0–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Merlo1.4

Dock Sud1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MERLO · PPG 1.47

DOCK SUD · PPG 0.80

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Merlo (H) 37.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -5.3%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -14.5%

Dock Sud (A) 36.4%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +0.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Merlo face Dock Sud in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Merlo a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Dock Sud 36%, so Deportivo Merlo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Deportivo Merlo and 1.3 for Dock Sud (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Merlo are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.80 for Dock Sud. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +41.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Deportivo Merlo vs Dock Sud Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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