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Excursionistas vs Argentino de Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 32 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 23:00

Excursionistas

PPG 2.07 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Argentino de Merlo

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.2% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-17.4%0-22.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.1%1-111.5%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-18.9%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.4%3-14.6%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-12.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 56.5% 1.77 -5.8%

Draw 24.5% 32.3% 3.10 -14.4%

Away win 22.4% 21.7% 4.60 +1.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 40.8% 2.45 +23.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 22.2% 4.50 +17.5%

BTTS 49.2% 47.6% 2.10 +3.3%

Home O1.5 45.2% 46.5% 2.15 -2.8%

Away O1.5 18.2% 22.2% 4.50 -10.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.1%

#2 2–0✓ 12.5%

#3 1–1 11.5%

#4 0–0 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Excursionistas1.6

Argentino de Merlo0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

EXCURSIONISTAS · PPG 2.07

ARGENTINO DE MERLO · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Excursionistas (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -5.8%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.4%

Argentino de Merlo (A) 22.4%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +1.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Excursionistas face Argentino de Merlo in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Excursionistas a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Argentino de Merlo 22%, so Excursionistas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Excursionistas and 0.7 for Argentino de Merlo (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Excursionistas are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.27 for Argentino de Merlo. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +32.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Excursionistas vs Argentino de Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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