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UAI Urquiza vs Deportivo Laferrere Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 32 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 18:00

UAI Urquiza

PPG 0.93 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Deportivo Laferrere

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.2%0-116.6%0-28.0%0-32.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-013.7%1-113.2%1-26.4%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-05.5%2-15.3%2-22.5%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.5%3-11.4%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.5% 35.7% 2.80 -3.4%

Draw 31.2% 34.7% 2.88 -10.1%

Away win 34.3% 39.2% 2.55 -12.5%

Over 2.5 37.9% 37.0% 2.70 +2.3%

Over 3.5 20.7% 18.2% 5.50 +8.3%

BTTS 47.2% 47.6% 2.10 -0.9%

Home O1.5 30.9% 30.8% 3.25 +0.4%

Away O1.5 25.8% 33.3% 3.00 -13.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.2%

D 31% / xG 0.8-1.0 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.2%

#2 1–0 13.7%

#3 0–1 16.6%

#4 1–1 13.2%

#5 0–2✓ 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UAI Urquiza0.8

Deportivo Laferrere1.0

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UAI URQUIZA · PPG 0.93

DEPORTIVO LAFERRERE · PPG 1.47

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.16, combined xG 1.76 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

UAI Urquiza (H) 34.5%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -3.4%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -10.1%

Deportivo Laferrere (A) 34.3%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

UAI Urquiza face Deportivo Laferrere in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UAI Urquiza a 35% chance, the draw 31% and Deportivo Laferrere 34%, so UAI Urquiza are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for UAI Urquiza and 1.0 for Deportivo Laferrere (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UAI Urquiza are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 1.47 for Deportivo Laferrere. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.3%. This match finished 0-2.

UAI Urquiza vs Deportivo Laferrere Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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