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Sportivo Italiano vs Defensores Unidos Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 32 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 18:00

Sportivo Italiano

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLLW

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Defensores Unidos

PPG 0.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 59.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-17.8%0-22.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.0%1-111.2%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-18.0%2-22.4%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.5%3-13.8%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-11.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 59.5% 1.68 -10.3%

Draw 25.0% 31.3% 3.20 -12.0%

Away win 21.6% 19.6% 5.10 +6.1%

Over 2.5 44.8% 38.5% 2.60 +16.5%

Over 3.5 25.6% 22.2% 4.50 +9.1%

BTTS 47.2% 43.5% 2.30 +8.6%

Home O1.5 40.1% 47.6% 2.10 -15.8%

Away O1.5 16.3% 19.0% 5.25 -8.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.2%

H 53% / xG 1.4-0.6 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.0%

#2 2–0 13.6%

#3 0–0 13.2%

#4 1–1 11.2%

#5 0–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sportivo Italiano1.4

Defensores Unidos0.6

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SPORTIVO ITALIANO · PPG 1.60

DEFENSORES UNIDOS · PPG 0.27

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sportivo Italiano (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -10.3%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -12.0%

Defensores Unidos (A) 21.6%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sportivo Italiano face Defensores Unidos in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sportivo Italiano a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Defensores Unidos 22%, so Sportivo Italiano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Sportivo Italiano and 0.6 for Defensores Unidos (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sportivo Italiano are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.27 for Defensores Unidos. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +19.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Sportivo Italiano vs Defensores Unidos Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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