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San Martín Burzaco vs Argentino Quilmes Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 32 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 18:00

San Martín Burzaco

PPG 0.93 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWL

3 – 2

FULL TIME

Argentino Quilmes

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.0%0-113.8%0-25.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.5%1-113.4%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.5%2-16.5%2-22.8%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.4%3-12.1%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% 43.5% 2.30 -20.4%

Draw 31.2% 34.5% 2.90 -9.5%

Away win 34.2% 32.3% 3.10 +6.0%

Over 2.5 37.8% 37.0% 2.70 +2.1%

Over 3.5 18.0% 22.2% 4.50 -11.4%

BTTS 45.6% 46.5% 2.15 -2.0%

Home O1.5 30.9% 35.7% 2.80 -13.5%

Away O1.5 24.4% 28.2% 3.55 -8.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob45.6%

D 31% / xG 1.0-0.9 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 16.0%

#2 0–1 13.8%

#3 1–0 15.5%

#4 1–1 13.4%

#5 2–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Martín Burzaco1.0

Argentino Quilmes0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARTÍN BURZACO · PPG 0.93

ARGENTINO QUILMES · PPG 1.20

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.11, combined xG 1.83 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

San Martín Burzaco (H) 34.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -20.4%

Draw 31.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -9.5%

Argentino Quilmes (A) 34.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Martín Burzaco face Argentino Quilmes in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Martín Burzaco a 35% chance, the draw 31% and Argentino Quilmes 34%, so San Martín Burzaco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for San Martín Burzaco and 0.9 for Argentino Quilmes (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Martín Burzaco are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 1.20 for Argentino Quilmes. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +13.6%. This match finished 3-2.

San Martín Burzaco vs Argentino Quilmes Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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