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Real Pilar vs Brown DE Adrogue Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 32 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 18:00

Real Pilar

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Brown DE Adrogue

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.3%0-111.2%0-23.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.2%1-112.4%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.6%2-16.9%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.9%3-12.5%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% 47.6% 2.10 -6.6%

Draw 32.2% 33.9% 2.95 -5.0%

Away win 23.3% 29.0% 3.45 -11.8%

Over 2.5 34.2% 37.0% 2.70 -7.7%

Over 3.5 18.0% 22.2% 4.50 -11.4%

BTTS 42.6% 45.5% 2.20 -6.3%

Home O1.5 31.0% 38.5% 2.60 -19.4%

Away O1.5 17.8% 25.6% 3.90 -18.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob42.6%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.2%

#2 0–0 17.3%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 0–1 11.2%

#5 2–0✓ 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Pilar1.1

Brown DE Adrogue0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.0%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL PILAR · PPG 1.47

BROWN DE ADROGUE · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.46, combined xG 1.76 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Real Pilar (H) 44.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -6.6%

Draw 32.2%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -5.0%

Brown DE Adrogue (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Pilar face Brown DE Adrogue in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Pilar a 45% chance, the draw 32% and Brown DE Adrogue 23%, so Real Pilar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Real Pilar and 0.6 for Brown DE Adrogue (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Pilar are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 1.00 for Brown DE Adrogue. This match finished 2-0.

Real Pilar vs Brown DE Adrogue Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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