Today / Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana / Arsenal Sarandi vs Ituzaingó

Arsenal Sarandi vs Ituzaingó Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Matchday 32 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 18:00

Arsenal Sarandi

PPG 1.87 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Ituzaingó

PPG 0.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-13.8%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.7%1-18.1%1-22.2%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.6%2-18.5%2-22.3%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.0%3-16.0%3-21.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-09.6%4+-15.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.1% 76.9% 1.30 -18.0%

Draw 21.7% 23.8% 4.20 -5.3%

Away win 15.1% 9.8% 10.25 +32.9%

Over 2.5 50.5% 51.3% 1.95 -1.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.4% 3.40 -1.5%

BTTS 43.7% 42.6% 2.35 +2.7%

Home O1.5 59.6% 64.5% 1.55 -7.6%

Away O1.5 15.1% 16.7% 6.00 -5.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 173 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 68%

ROI 17.6%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob43.7%

H 63% / xG 2.1-0.5 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 15.6%

#2 1–0 14.7%

#3 1–1 8.1%

#4 3–0 11.0%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arsenal Sarandi2.1

Ituzaingó0.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ARSENAL SARANDI · PPG 1.87

ITUZAINGÓ · PPG 0.27

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.57 for Home, form 1.87 vs 0.27 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Arsenal Sarandi (H) 63.1%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -18.0%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -5.3%

Ituzaingó (A) 15.1%

ODDS 10.25 · IMPLIED 9.8% EV +32.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arsenal Sarandi face Ituzaingó in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arsenal Sarandi a 63% chance, the draw 22% and Ituzaingó 15%, so Arsenal Sarandi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Arsenal Sarandi and 0.5 for Ituzaingó (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arsenal Sarandi are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 0.27 for Ituzaingó. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +24.1%. This match finished 2-0.

Arsenal Sarandi vs Ituzaingó Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

More Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana Predictions