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Jeju United FC vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Matchday 25 ·Tuesday, August 25, 2026, 10:30

Jeju United FC

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Pohang Steelers

PPG 1.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.8%0-112.7%0-26.3%0-32.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.6%1-113.5%1-26.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.2%2-17.2%2-23.6%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.6%3-12.5%3-21.3%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 41.7% 2.40 +4.4%

Draw 27.2% 32.3% 3.10 -9.4%

Away win 29.3% 33.3% 3.00 -7.3%

Over 2.5 43.1% 42.6% 2.35 +1.3%

Over 3.5 21.1% 22.2% 4.50 -3.0%

BTTS 47.2% 51.8% 1.93 -8.9%

Home O1.5 30.9% 37.7% 2.65 -18.1%

Away O1.5 29.9% 32.3% 3.10 -4.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 62 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 34%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -23.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.2%

H 44% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.6%

#2 1–1 13.5%

#3 0–0 12.8%

#4 0–1 12.7%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jeju United FC1.1

Pohang Steelers1.0

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

JEJU UNITED FC · PPG 1.29

POHANG STEELERS · PPG 1.54

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.07, combined xG 2.05 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jeju United FC (H) 43.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +4.4%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.4%

Pohang Steelers (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jeju United FC face Pohang Steelers in South Korea - K League 1 on Tuesday, August 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jeju United FC a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Pohang Steelers 29%, so Jeju United FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Jeju United FC and 1.0 for Pohang Steelers (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jeju United FC are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.54 for Pohang Steelers. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Jeju United FC vs Pohang Steelers Prediction— South Korea - K League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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