Burnley vs Manchester City Prediction— England - Premier League

England - Premier League Regular Season - 34 Turf Moor· Burnley Wednesday, April 22, 2026 19:00

Burnley PPG 0.69

0-1 HIT CS5

Manchester City PPG 1.75

Home· +40.3% ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Burnley face Manchester City in England - Premier League on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Burnley a 9% chance, the draw 14% and Manchester City 78%, so Manchester City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Burnley and 2.7 for Manchester City (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Burnley are averaging 0.69 points per game versus 1.75 for Manchester City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +40.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 8.5%

Odds: 16.50 EV: +40.3%

Draw 13.8%

Odds: 7.70 EV: +6.3%

Away 77.7%

Odds: 1.14 EV: -11.4%

Model lean: Away Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 68.9% Odds: 1.33 -8.4%

Over 3.5 47.5% Odds: 1.83 -13.1%

BTTS 52.0% Odds: 2.00 +4.0%

O2.5 OVER → UNDER ✘ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 0-2 ✘

2nd 0-3 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 1-3 ✘

5th 0-1 ✔

Expected Goals (xG)

Burnley

0.81

Manchester City

2.74

Model SuggestionAway -11.4% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Away, but EV is -11.4% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+40.3%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5/Under 44%

BTTS/No 60%

Score Hit 44%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55% (11 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home POOR (0.69)