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Burnley vs Manchester City Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 34 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 19:00

Burnley

PPG 0.69 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Manchester City

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDL

// Model verdict

Away 85% chance

Model probability 77.7% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-17.8%0-210.8%0-39.8%0-4+13.1%1 1-02.3%1-16.4%1-28.7%1-38.0%1-4+10.6%2 2-00.9%2-12.6%2-23.5%2-33.2%2-4+4.3%3 3-00.3%3-10.7%3-21.0%3-30.9%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 8.5% 6.1% 16.50 +40.3%

Draw 13.8% 13.0% 7.70 +6.3%

Away win 77.7% 87.7% 1.14 -11.4%

Over 2.5 68.9% 75.2% 1.33 -8.4%

Over 3.5 47.5% 54.6% 1.83 -13.1%

BTTS 52.0% 50.0% 2.00 +4.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob52.0%

A 78% / xG 0.8-2.7 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.8%

#2 0–3 9.8%

#3 1–2 8.7%

#4 1–3 8.0%

#5 0–1✓ 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Burnley0.8

Manchester City2.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BURNLEY · PPG 0.69

MANCHESTER CITY · PPG 1.75

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

85%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.75) vs Home POOR (0.69)

Win probability 1X2

Burnley (H) 8.5%

ODDS 16.50 · IMPLIED 6.1% EV +40.3%

Draw 13.8%

ODDS 7.70 · IMPLIED 13.0% EV +6.3%

Manchester City (A) 77.7%

ODDS 1.14 · IMPLIED 87.7% EV -11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Burnley face Manchester City in England - Premier League on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Burnley a 9% chance, the draw 14% and Manchester City 78%, so Manchester City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Burnley and 2.7 for Manchester City (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Burnley are averaging 0.69 points per game versus 1.75 for Manchester City. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +40.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Burnley vs Manchester City Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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