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Bournemouth vs Leeds Utd Prediction— England - Premier League

Matchday 34 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 19:00

Bournemouth

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Leeds Utd

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+10.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-14.6%0-22.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.7%1-19.5%1-25.8%1-32.4%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.9%2-19.7%2-26.0%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.4%3-16.6%3-24.1%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-15.4%4+-23.3%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.3% 50.5% 1.98 +11.5%

Draw 21.2% 28.2% 3.55 -24.7%

Away win 22.5% 28.2% 3.55 -20.1%

Over 2.5 63.6% 57.8% 1.73 +10.0%

Over 3.5 41.4% 35.7% 2.80 +15.9%

BTTS 61.6% 61.7% 1.62 -0.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.6%

H 56% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.7%

#2 1–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 1–0 7.7%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bournemouth2.0

Leeds Utd1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 41.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BOURNEMOUTH · PPG 1.63

LEEDS UTD · PPG 0.81

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

60%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.63) vs P(Home)=56.3%

Win probability 1X2

Bournemouth (H) 56.3%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV +11.5%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -24.7%

Leeds Utd (A) 22.5%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -20.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bournemouth face Leeds Utd in England - Premier League on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bournemouth a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Leeds Utd 23%, so Bournemouth are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Bournemouth and 1.2 for Leeds Utd (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bournemouth are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 0.81 for Leeds Utd. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Bournemouth vs Leeds Utd Prediction— England - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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