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England - Premier League logo England flag England - Premier League Regular Season - 34 Vitality Stadium· Bournemouth Wednesday, April 22, 2026 19:00
Bournemouth logo Bournemouth PPG 1.63
2-2 MISS
Leeds Utd logo Leeds Utd PPG 0.81
Over3.5· +15.9% 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95% confidence

Match Result (1X2)

Home 56.3%
Odds: 1.98 EV: +11.5%
Draw 21.2%
Odds: 3.55 EV: -24.7%
Away 22.5%
Odds: 3.55 EV: -20.1%
Model lean: Over 2.5
Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 63.6% Odds: 1.73 +10.0%
Over 3.5 41.4% Odds: 2.80 +15.9%
BTTS 61.6% Odds: 1.62 -0.2%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘
2nd 1-1 ✘
3rd 2-0 ✘
4th 1-0 ✘
5th 3-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Bournemouth
2.05
Leeds Utd
1.23

Model Suggestion

Over 2.5 +10.0% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5.
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+15.9%)

Verdict & Form

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
95%
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.63) vs P(Home)=56.3%

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