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Cardiff City vs Port Vale Prediction— England - League One

Regular Season - 41 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 18:45

Cardiff City

PPG 2.24 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Port Vale

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 81.5% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-12.3%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-011.2%1-16.1%1-21.6%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.6%2-17.9%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.7%3-16.9%3-21.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-015.4%4+-18.3%4+-22.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 81.5% 78.1% 1.28 +4.3%

Draw 12.9% 19.2% 5.20 -32.9%

Away win 5.6% 9.5% 10.50 -41.2%

Over 2.5 60.8% 64.5% 1.55 -5.8%

Over 3.5 38.5% 42.6% 2.35 -9.5%

BTTS 38.7% 54.1% 1.85 -28.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 37%

ROI -13.9%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob38.7%

H 82% / xG 2.6-0.5 / O2.5 61% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.6%

#2 3–0 12.7%

#3 1–0✓ 11.2%

#4 4–0 8.2%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cardiff City2.6

Port Vale0.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 38.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CARDIFF CITY · PPG 2.24

PORT VALE · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.24), Away POOR (0.90) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Cardiff City (H) 81.5%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV +4.3%

Draw 12.9%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV -32.9%

Port Vale (A) 5.6%

ODDS 10.50 · IMPLIED 9.5% EV -41.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cardiff City face Port Vale in England - League One on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cardiff City a 82% chance, the draw 13% and Port Vale 6%, so Cardiff City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Cardiff City and 0.5 for Port Vale (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cardiff City are averaging 2.24 points per game versus 0.90 for Port Vale. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.3%. This match finished 1-0.

Cardiff City vs Port Vale Prediction— England - League One

Match Preview & Prediction

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