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Racing Club vs Boca Juniors Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 00:30

Racing Club

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Boca Juniors

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-112.7%0-27.4%0-32.9%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.3%1-113.3%1-27.8%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.0%2-17.0%2-24.1%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.1%3-12.5%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% 32.3% 3.10 -1.4%

Draw 27.6% 35.7% 2.80 -13.6%

Away win 40.6% 41.7% 2.40 -2.6%

Over 2.5 44.8% 38.5% 2.60 +16.5%

Over 3.5 26.2% 20.0% 5.00 +18.6%

BTTS 49.2% 48.8% 2.05 +0.9%

Home O1.5 30.9% 26.7% 3.75 +15.9%

Away O1.5 33.0% 36.4% 2.75 -9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 134 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.2%

A 41% / xG 1.1-1.2 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.3%

#2 0–1 12.7%

#3 0–0 10.8%

#4 1–0 11.3%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Racing Club1.1

Boca Juniors1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.2%

Form & verdict PPG

RACING CLUB · PPG 1.20

BOCA JUNIORS · PPG 1.64

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.12, combined xG 2.23 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Racing Club (H) 31.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -1.4%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -13.6%

Boca Juniors (A) 40.6%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Racing Club face Boca Juniors in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Racing Club a 32% chance, the draw 28% and Boca Juniors 41%, so Boca Juniors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Racing Club and 1.2 for Boca Juniors (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Racing Club are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.64 for Boca Juniors. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Racing Club vs Boca Juniors Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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