Today / USA - MLS / Atlanta United FC vs Sporting Kansas City

Atlanta United FC vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 23:00

Atlanta United FC

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Sporting Kansas City

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-13.5%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.7%1-18.2%1-23.9%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.2%2-19.7%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.0%3-17.6%3-23.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-17.8%4+-23.7%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.0% 61.7% 1.62 -2.8%

Draw 19.7% 23.8% 4.20 -10.4%

Away win 20.2% 23.8% 4.20 -9.1%

Over 2.5 62.9% 66.7% 1.50 -5.7%

Over 3.5 39.4% 45.5% 2.20 -13.3%

BTTS 54.7% 65.4% 1.53 -16.3%

Home O1.5 65.1% 65.4% 1.53 -0.4%

Away O1.5 25.7% 38.2% 2.62 -19.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.7%

H 60% / xG 2.4-0.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 2–0 10.2%

#3 2–1✓ 9.7%

#4 3–0 8.0%

#5 3–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlanta United FC2.4

Sporting Kansas City0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.9% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLANTA UNITED FC · PPG 1.11

SPORTING KANSAS CITY · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.41 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atlanta United FC (H) 60.0%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -2.8%

Draw 19.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -10.4%

Sporting Kansas City (A) 20.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -9.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlanta United FC face Sporting Kansas City in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlanta United FC a 60% chance, the draw 20% and Sporting Kansas City 20%, so Atlanta United FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Atlanta United FC and 0.9 for Sporting Kansas City (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlanta United FC are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.60 for Sporting Kansas City. This match finished 2-1.

Atlanta United FC vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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