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Pachuca W vs Guadalajara W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 22:00

Pachuca W

PPG 2.16 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWL

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Guadalajara W

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-16.6%0-24.5%0-32.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.0%1-110.9%1-27.5%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-19.1%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.7%3-15.1%3-23.5%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.1%4+-22.1%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.1% 52.4% 1.91 -17.7%

Draw 23.1% 31.3% 3.20 -15.7%

Away win 33.8% 28.6% 3.50 +18.3%

Over 2.5 59.8% 60.6% 1.65 -1.3%

Over 3.5 36.7% 40.0% 2.50 -8.3%

BTTS 61.3% 61.7% 1.62 -0.7%

Home O1.5 48.3% 59.9% 1.67 -19.3%

Away O1.5 41.2% 33.3% 3.00 +23.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 16%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.3%

H 43% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pachuca W1.7

Guadalajara W1.4

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PACHUCA W · PPG 2.16

GUADALAJARA W · PPG 1.80

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.29 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Pachuca W (H) 43.1%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -17.7%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.7%

Guadalajara W (A) 33.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pachuca W face Guadalajara W in Mexico - Liga MX Femenil on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pachuca W a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Guadalajara W 34%, so Pachuca W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Pachuca W and 1.4 for Guadalajara W (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pachuca W are averaging 2.16 points per game versus 1.80 for Guadalajara W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +30.5%. This match finished 3-1.

Pachuca W vs Guadalajara W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Match Preview & Prediction

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