Today / USA - MLS / New England Revolution vs New York City FC
New England Revolution vs New York City FC Prediction— USA - MLS
Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 20:30
// Model verdict
BTTS
Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.
Poisson scoreline matrix
Markets vs the line
League track record ↗
Based on 109 resolved predictions
Correct score prediction
H 52% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
Expected goals
COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%
Form & verdict
NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION · PPG 2.27
NEW YORK CITY FC · PPG 1.22
xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge
Win probability
Match Preview & Prediction
New England Revolution face New York City FC in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New England Revolution a 52% chance, the draw 24% and New York City FC 24%, so New England Revolution are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for New England Revolution and 1.0 for New York City FC (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New England Revolution are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.22 for New York City FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +21.0%. This match finished 1-1.