Today / USA - MLS / New England Revolution vs New York City FC

New England Revolution vs New York City FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 20:30

New England Revolution logo
New England Revolution
PPG 2.27 · HOME
LAST 5
LLWDW
1 – 1
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS
New York City FC logo
New York City FC
PPG 1.22 · AWAY
LAST 5
DLLDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-16.1%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.8%1-111.0%1-25.5%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.7%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.8%3-15.9%3-23.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.0%4+-22.0%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 52.4% 45.5% 2.20 +15.3%
Draw 23.7% 28.6% 3.50 -10.2%
Away win 23.9% 35.7% 2.80 -19.9%
Over 2.5 53.9% 59.9% 1.67 -10.0%
Over 3.5 33.6% 38.2% 2.62 -12.0%
BTTS 54.7% 61.7% 1.62 -11.4%
Home O1.5 48.8% 50.0% 2.00 -2.4%
Away O1.5 31.7% 44.4% 2.25 -28.7%

League track record

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%
O2.5 61%
BTTS 64%
Score Hit 48%
ROI -18.9%
Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-1
xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%
#2 2–1 9.8%
#3 2–0 9.7%
#4 1–0 10.8%
#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New England Revolution1.8
New York City FC1.0

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION · PPG 2.27

NEW YORK CITY FC · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage
75%
MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

New England Revolution (H) 52.4%
ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +15.3%
Draw 23.7%
ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.2%
New York City FC (A) 23.9%
ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -19.9%

Season Statistics average per match · 22 matches · 2026

New England Revolution ▾ lower is better New York City FC

Attack

12.1
Shots
11.6
4.6
Shots on target
4.9
4.6
Shots off target
3.9
2.8
Blocked shots
2.9
7.7
Shots inside box
8.3
4.4
Shots outside box
3.4
38.3%
Shooting accuracy
41.8%
35.3%
Goals per shot on target
33.6%
1.64
Goals
1.64
1.47
xG for
1.38

Defence

12.8
Shots faced
12.2
5.1
Shots on target faced
5.0
1.23
Goals conceded
1.41
1.31
xG against
1.42
3.8
Goalkeeper saves
3.5

Control

51.3%
Possession
54.1%
487
Passes
510
428
Accurate passes
434
87.8%
Pass accuracy
85.2%
4.5
Corners
3.5
5.2
Corners faced
4.7
1.9
Offsides
2.7

Discipline

9.9
Fouls
11.6
1.6
Yellow cards
1.8
0.00
Red cards
0.05

Match Preview & Prediction

New England Revolution face New York City FC in USA - MLS on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New England Revolution a 52% chance, the draw 24% and New York City FC 24%, so New England Revolution are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for New England Revolution and 1.0 for New York City FC (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New England Revolution are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.22 for New York City FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +21.0%. This match finished 1-1.

PredictVantage

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