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Belgrano Cordoba vs Defensa Y Justicia Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 20:00

Belgrano Cordoba

PPG 1.92 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Defensa Y Justicia

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-15.8%0-22.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.6%1-110.4%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.1%2-19.4%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.8%3-15.6%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-13.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% 55.6% 1.80 +2.6%

Draw 23.6% 33.3% 3.00 -17.5%

Away win 19.4% 20.8% 4.80 -4.1%

Over 2.5 50.2% 45.5% 2.20 +10.4%

Over 3.5 28.4% 25.0% 4.00 +8.2%

BTTS 47.6% 46.5% 2.15 +2.3%

Home O1.5 48.8% 45.5% 2.20 +7.4%

Away O1.5 17.9% 20.0% 5.00 -6.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 134 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.6%

H 57% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.1%

#2 1–0 14.6%

#3 1–1 10.4%

#4 0–0 8.1%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Belgrano Cordoba1.8

Defensa Y Justicia0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

BELGRANO CORDOBA · PPG 1.92

DEFENSA Y JUSTICIA · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.08 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Belgrano Cordoba (H) 57.0%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +2.6%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.5%

Defensa Y Justicia (A) 19.4%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Belgrano Cordoba face Defensa Y Justicia in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Belgrano Cordoba a 57% chance, the draw 24% and Defensa Y Justicia 19%, so Belgrano Cordoba are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Belgrano Cordoba and 0.7 for Defensa Y Justicia (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Belgrano Cordoba are averaging 1.92 points per game versus 1.20 for Defensa Y Justicia. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.9%. This match finished 1-2.

Belgrano Cordoba vs Defensa Y Justicia Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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