Aarau vs Lausanne Ouchy Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Switzerland - Challenge League Regular Season - 31 Wednesday, April 22, 2026 17:30

Aarau PPG 2.27

3-0 MISS

Lausanne Ouchy PPG 1.33

Home· -4.0% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Aarau face Lausanne Ouchy in Switzerland - Challenge League on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aarau a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Lausanne Ouchy 24%, so Aarau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Aarau and 1.3 for Lausanne Ouchy (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aarau are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.33 for Lausanne Ouchy. This match finished 3-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 55.5%

Odds: 1.73 EV: -4.0%

Draw 20.8%

Odds: 3.85 EV: -19.9%

Away 23.7%

Odds: 3.90 EV: -7.6%

Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 67.1% Odds: 1.42 -4.7%

Over 3.5 45.4% Odds: 2.05 -6.9%

BTTS 64.8% Odds: 1.40 -9.3%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 2-0 ✘

4th 3-1 ✘

5th 1-0 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Aarau

2.12

Lausanne Ouchy

1.33

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 -4.7% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -4.7% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.27) vs P(Home)=55.5%