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Aarau vs Lausanne Ouchy Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Regular Season - 31 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 17:30

Aarau

PPG 2.27 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lausanne Ouchy

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.1% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.2%0-22.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-06.7%1-18.9%1-26.0%1-32.6%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.1%2-19.5%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-05.0%3-16.7%3-24.5%3-32.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-15.8%4+-23.9%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.5% 57.8% 1.73 -4.0%

Draw 20.8% 26.0% 3.85 -19.9%

Away win 23.7% 25.6% 3.90 -7.6%

Over 2.5 67.1% 70.4% 1.42 -4.7%

Over 3.5 45.4% 48.8% 2.05 -6.9%

BTTS 64.8% 71.4% 1.40 -9.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 93%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 39%

ROI 38.5%

Bet Hit 92%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob64.8%

H 56% / xG 2.1-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.5%

#2 1–1 8.9%

#3 2–0 7.1%

#4 3–1 6.7%

#5 1–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aarau2.1

Lausanne Ouchy1.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.1% · O3.5 PROB 45.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AARAU · PPG 2.27

LAUSANNE OUCHY · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.27) vs P(Home)=55.5%

Win probability 1X2

Aarau (H) 55.5%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -4.0%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -19.9%

Lausanne Ouchy (A) 23.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aarau face Lausanne Ouchy in Switzerland - Challenge League on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aarau a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Lausanne Ouchy 24%, so Aarau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Aarau and 1.3 for Lausanne Ouchy (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aarau are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.33 for Lausanne Ouchy. This match finished 3-0.

Aarau vs Lausanne Ouchy Prediction— Switzerland - Challenge League

Match Preview & Prediction

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