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Puebla W vs Atlético San Luis W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 18:00

Puebla W

PPG 0.76 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

2 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Atlético San Luis W

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-15.9%0-26.7%0-35.0%0-4+4.7%1 1-03.7%1-18.3%1-29.3%1-36.9%1-4+6.5%2 2-02.6%2-15.7%2-26.4%2-34.8%2-4+4.5%3 3-01.2%3-12.7%3-23.0%3-32.2%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.2%4+-21.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.8% 21.7% 4.60 +5.7%

Draw 20.7% 26.3% 3.80 -12.8%

Away win 55.5% 64.5% 1.55 -14.0%

Over 2.5 67.3% 63.7% 1.57 +5.7%

Over 3.5 45.8% 44.4% 2.25 +3.0%

BTTS 63.2% 62.5% 1.60 +1.1%

Home O1.5 38.7% 29.4% 3.40 +31.6%

Away O1.5 65.4% 66.7% 1.50 -1.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 16%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-5

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob63.2%

A 56% / xG 1.4-2.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.3%

#2 1–1 8.3%

#3 1–3 6.9%

#4 0–2 6.7%

#5 2–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puebla W1.4

Atlético San Luis W2.2

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 45.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PUEBLA W · PPG 0.76

ATLÉTICO SAN LUIS W · PPG 1.30

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.85 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Puebla W (H) 23.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +5.7%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -12.8%

Atlético San Luis W (A) 55.5%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -14.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Puebla W face Atlético San Luis W in Mexico - Liga MX Femenil on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puebla W a 24% chance, the draw 21% and Atlético San Luis W 56%, so Atlético San Luis W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Puebla W and 2.2 for Atlético San Luis W (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puebla W are averaging 0.76 points per game versus 1.30 for Atlético San Luis W. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +40.5%. This match finished 2-5.

Puebla W vs Atlético San Luis W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Match Preview & Prediction

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