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Sarmiento Junin vs Estudiantes L.P. Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 17:45

Sarmiento Junin

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Estudiantes L.P.

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.5%0-115.1%0-27.9%0-32.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-012.9%1-113.4%1-27.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.7%2-16.0%2-23.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.7%3-11.8%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% 30.8% 3.25 +13.8%

Draw 30.4% 35.7% 2.80 -14.9%

Away win 34.6% 43.5% 2.30 -20.4%

Over 2.5 42.7% 38.5% 2.60 +11.0%

Over 3.5 20.6% 20.0% 5.00 +1.8%

BTTS 47.6% 47.6% 2.10 -0.0%

Home O1.5 30.6% 26.7% 3.75 +14.8%

Away O1.5 32.6% 36.4% 2.75 -10.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 134 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.6%

D 30% / xG 0.9-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.5%

#2 1–0 12.9%

#3 1–1 13.4%

#4 0–1 15.1%

#5 0–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sarmiento Junin0.9

Estudiantes L.P.1.0

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SARMIENTO JUNIN · PPG 2.00

ESTUDIANTES L.P. · PPG 1.50

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.15, combined xG 1.93 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sarmiento Junin (H) 35.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +13.8%

Draw 30.4%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -14.9%

Estudiantes L.P. (A) 34.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -20.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sarmiento Junin face Estudiantes L.P. in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sarmiento Junin a 35% chance, the draw 30% and Estudiantes L.P. 35%, so Sarmiento Junin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Sarmiento Junin and 1.0 for Estudiantes L.P. (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sarmiento Junin are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Estudiantes L.P.. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +14.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Sarmiento Junin vs Estudiantes L.P. Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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