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Barracas Central vs Platense Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Clausura · Matchday 6 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 17:45

Barracas Central

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Platense

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.6%0-111.3%0-24.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-016.8%1-113.0%1-25.0%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-09.6%2-17.5%2-22.9%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.7%3-12.9%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.1%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 40.0% 2.50 +9.5%

Draw 31.5% 37.0% 2.70 -14.9%

Away win 24.7% 32.3% 3.10 -14.1%

Over 2.5 38.0% 29.4% 3.40 +29.2%

Over 3.5 20.1% 14.3% 7.00 +24.4%

BTTS 47.6% 43.5% 2.30 +9.5%

Home O1.5 30.6% 28.6% 3.50 +7.1%

Away O1.5 19.0% 26.7% 3.75 -17.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 134 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -5.7%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.6%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.8 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.8%

#2 0–0 14.6%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 2–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barracas Central1.1

Platense0.8

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BARRACAS CENTRAL · PPG 1.40

PLATENSE · PPG 1.10

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 1.93 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Barracas Central (H) 43.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +9.5%

Draw 31.5%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -14.9%

Platense (A) 24.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barracas Central face Platense in Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barracas Central a 44% chance, the draw 32% and Platense 25%, so Barracas Central are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Barracas Central and 0.8 for Platense (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barracas Central are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.10 for Platense. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +29.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Barracas Central vs Platense Prediction— Argentina - Liga Profesional Argentina

Match Preview & Prediction

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