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Hapoel Katamon vs Maccabi Tel Aviv Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 17:15

Hapoel Katamon

PPG 1.05 · HOME

LAST 5

LL ···

2 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Maccabi Tel Aviv

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

WW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-110.5%0-28.2%0-34.2%0-4+2.3%1 1-07.7%1-112.0%1-29.3%1-34.8%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.4%2-16.8%2-25.3%2-32.7%2-4+1.5%3 3-01.7%3-12.6%3-22.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.2% — — —

Draw 24.7% — — —

Away win 44.1% — — —

Over 2.5 53.9% — — —

Over 3.5 31.6% — — —

BTTS 54.7% — — —

Home O1.5 30.6% — — —

Away O1.5 48.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 38%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 25%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 10.5%

#4 2–1 6.8%

#5 0–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hapoel Katamon1.1

Maccabi Tel Aviv1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HAPOEL KATAMON · PPG 1.05

MACCABI TEL AVIV · PPG 1.56

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hapoel Katamon (H) 31.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Maccabi Tel Aviv (A) 44.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Hapoel Katamon face Maccabi Tel Aviv in Israel - Ligat Ha'al on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hapoel Katamon a 31% chance, the draw 25% and Maccabi Tel Aviv 44%, so Maccabi Tel Aviv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Hapoel Katamon and 1.6 for Maccabi Tel Aviv (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hapoel Katamon are averaging 1.05 points per game versus 1.56 for Maccabi Tel Aviv. This match finished 2-5.

Hapoel Katamon vs Maccabi Tel Aviv Prediction— Israel - Ligat Ha'al

Match Preview & Prediction

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